-Friday World 🌎 Feb 15, 2026
India Will Now Buy More Oil from the US: Is the Era of Russian Crude Finally Ending?
February 15, 2026: The interim trade agreement announced between India and the United States on February 2, 2026 has sent shockwaves through the global energy market. US President Donald Trump, while announcing the deal, claimed that India has committed to completely halting direct or indirect imports of Russian crude oil. In return, the United States has removed the 25% penalty tariffs on Indian goods and reduced the main reciprocal tariff to 18%. These changes came into effect from February 7, 2026.
→ Following the agreement, Indian refiners have stayed away from new purchases of Russian oil, especially for March–April 2026 deliveries. According to reports from Bloomberg, Reuters, and other sources, Russian crude imports have seen a significant decline, with a clear shift toward American crude and Venezuelan oil.
→ Government-owned and private refiners have been instructed to prioritize US crude in spot market tenders, while negotiations with private traders (such as Vitol and Trafigura) continue for Venezuelan crude.
Sharp Decline in Russian Oil Imports: Result of US Pressure, Sanctions, and the Trade Deal
→ After the Ukraine war, discounted Russian oil led India to sharply increase imports — in 2025, Russia held 30–35% market share and at times supplied up to 2 million barrels per day (mb/d). However, US pressure, the 25% penalty tariff, and fresh sanctions have reversed this trend.
→ In January 2026, Russian oil imports fell to 1.1 mb/d — the lowest level in three years (post-2022 low).
→ December 2025 saw imports hit a two-year low with a 22% drop.
→ From April to December 2025, Russian crude imports declined 17% to $33.1 billion.
→ Experts (Kpler, J.P. Morgan, Vortexa) estimate that by March 2026, Russia’s share could drop to 15–17%, with volumes falling to 0.8–1.0 mb/d and potentially reaching 500,000–600,000 bpd in the longer term.
→ The Indian government and External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar have made it clear that energy security, diversification, and strategic autonomy remain top priorities. Decisions will be based on cost, risk, and availability — not political pressure. India has not directly accepted US claims but continues to insist on preserving strategic autonomy.
US and Venezuelan Oil: Advantages, Challenges, and Rising Purchases
→ American crude is mostly “light and sweet” (low sulfur), while most Indian refineries are optimized for medium-to-heavy crude. The longer shipping distance also increases freight costs. Despite these challenges:
→ Imports from the US surged more than 65% (April–December 2025: $8.2 billion).
→ US crude now accounts for roughly 10% of India’s total imports.
→ Indian refiners have the capacity to take around 20 million tonnes annually (400,000 bpd) of American oil — double last year’s volume.
→ Venezuela holds the world’s largest oil reserves. With renewed US licenses, imports have restarted. IOC, HPCL, and BPCL have already purchased over 40 lakh barrels. Reliance has also resumed buying recently. The US has actively encouraged Venezuela as an alternative source for India.
ndia’s Energy Security: Diversification, Autonomy, and New Alternatives
→ India imports 85–90% of its oil needs. While discounted Russian crude offered major savings, geopolitical pressure and the trade deal have forced a pivot toward the US, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE.
→ Saudi Arabia emerged as the top supplier in the first ten days of February 2026.
→ This shift is likely to increase costs (1–2% higher import bill due to absence of Russian discounts), require refinery adjustments, and potentially impact overall energy security.
→ India’s energy policy is no longer purely economic — it has become deeply intertwined with political and global balancing acts. Whether the era of Russian oil is truly over remains to be seen, but the turn toward America now appears inevitable.
→ How much this will affect India’s strategic autonomy is a question that still hangs in the air.
Sajjadali Nayani ✍
Friday World 🌎 February 15, 2026
