-Friday World 🌎 March 10, 2026
This war extends far beyond energy prices. Linked sectors in India—including agriculture, hospitality, ceramics, and diamonds—are facing severe setbacks. From Uttar Pradesh to Gujarat and Karnataka, economic devastation is spreading. Domestic LPG cylinder prices rose by ₹60, burdening ordinary citizens, while commercial gas supply disruptions have halted industries. This article delves into the depth of this crisis.
► Energy Crisis at the Core: The Strait of Hormuz Threat The Strait of Hormuz is the world's narrowest and most vital energy corridor. Iran has threatened attacks and blockades during the war, leading to stalled tanker traffic and forced rerouting via longer paths like the Cape of Good Hope. This has inflated freight costs and delayed supplies.
India sources 40-50% of its crude oil and LNG through this route. Reports indicate that prolonged disruptions could push oil prices toward $100 or higher per barrel. For India, every $10 increase in oil prices adds $13-14 billion to the import bill, widening the trade deficit and weakening the rupee.
► Domestic Impact: LPG Cylinders and Commercial Gas Immediately after the escalation, India saw the first major LPG price hike in about a year. Domestic 14.2-kg cylinders increased by around ₹60, reaching ₹913 in Delhi. Commercial 19-kg cylinders jumped by ₹114-115, hitting ₹1,883 in many areas.
Booking patterns have changed drastically—delays and shortages are now common complaints. For millions of households, cooking has become more expensive. Commercial gas supply halts have crippled hotels and restaurants. In cities like Bengaluru, the hospitality industry is largely paralyzed, with kitchens shutting down due to gas shortages.
► Uttar Pradesh: Assault on Agriculture and Supply Chains Uttar Pradesh, India's largest agricultural state, is hit hard. Rising crude oil prices have driven up transportation costs, halting supplies of vegetables, meat, and other produce. The state faces an estimated loss of around ₹1,000 crore.
Truck drivers face fuel price hikes, supply chain breakdowns cause produce to rot in markets or become unaffordable, farmers struggle to sell crops, and consumers endure inflation. This is not just an economic issue but a growing social crisis.
► Gujarat's Ceramic Industry: Devastation in Morbi Morbi in Gujarat is India's ceramic tiles hub, with over 600-800 factories employing more than 4 lakh workers. The war has disrupted propane and natural gas supplies from the Middle East, with suppliers like Gujarat Gas and Indian Oil curtailing or stopping deliveries.
Result: 50-100+ factories (a quarter or more of units) have shut down. With an average of 100 workers per factory, over 10,000 laborers are unemployed, severely affecting their families reliant on these wages. India's major export-oriented ceramic sector now faces production halts and export losses.
► Surat's Diamond Industry: Echoes of Past Crises Just a year ago, Surat's diamond sector suffered a slowdown, impacting lakhs of artisans. Many children dropped out of school due to unpaid fees, with thousands returning to Saurashtra villages.
Now, the war threatens rough diamond supplies, as significant imports come from the Middle East. If the crisis prolongs, it could repeat that devastation, affecting livelihoods across the value chain.
► Russia's Oil: Discounts Gone, Premium Pricing Now Russia previously supplied discounted oil to India, but the war has shifted dynamics—Russia now demands premium prices. Iran, which once accepted rupees, now refuses both rupees and dollars, showing interest in gold-based trades. The US granted India a 30-day waiver for Russian oil purchases, but without discounts, costs remain high.
► What Lies Ahead? Fears of Broader Economic Catastrophe If the war drags on, inflation will rise, fiscal deficits will widen, and the rupee will weaken further. The government may increase subsidies, straining the budget. Remittances from the Middle East (a major inflow) could decline.
India must bolster energy security through renewables, larger stockpiles, and diversified imports. For now, the impact hits everyone—from common citizens to industries.
This war is no longer confined to the Middle East; it is scorching India's economy too. Millions of families' lives hang in the balance.
Sajjadali Nayani ✍
Friday World 🌎 March 10, 2026
