Friday World January 3, 2026
Canada is heading into a major crisis for temporary residents in 2026, especially affecting hundreds of thousands of Indian nationals. Millions of work permits and study permits are set to expire, while the government continues to tighten visa rules and restrict pathways to permanent residency (PR). This situation is being termed the "Work Permit Cliff," which could push a large number of people into undocumented (out-of-status) residency. Indians are expected to be the most severely impacted group.
Kanwar Seirah, a regulated immigration consultant based in Mississauga, Canada, has issued a serious warning on this issue. Citing data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC), he stated that by the end of 2025, approximately 1.053 million work permits will have already expired. In 2026, an additional 927,000 work permits are scheduled to expire. Combined, nearly 2 million permits are reaching their end date across these two years.
According to Seirah's estimate, by mid-2026, Canada could have as many as 2 million people living undocumented, with roughly half (more than 1 million) being of Indian origin. He described this figure as a "very conservative estimate," because it does not yet include the expiration of thousands of study permits or the likely rejection of numerous asylum (refugee) claims.
Why has this crisis emerged? Key reasons
In recent years, Canada rapidly increased the number of temporary residents, including workers and international students, with Indians forming the largest share. However, due to the ongoing housing crisis, rising
unemployment, and economic pressures, the government has introduced major changes in the 2025–2028 Immigration Levels Plan:
New study permit targets for 2026 have been reduced to 155,000 (a sharp drop from 437,000 in 2025).
New temporary worker permits in 2026 are capped at 230,000 (37% lower than the 368,000 in 2025).
The government aims to bring the total temporary resident population below 5% of Canada's overall population by 2027.
These strict policies have made extensions and PR pathways much more difficult. Individuals whose permits expire and who fail to secure a new visa automatically become out-of-status. The majority of those affected are Indians, as they hold the largest proportion of work permits in sectors such as technology, healthcare, and hospitality, as well as study permits.
Social and economic consequences
The impact is already visible on the ground. In areas of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) such as Brampton and Caledon, tent encampments have emerged where undocumented individuals are living. Many Indians are now working for cash, and fraudulent marriage bureaus and other unethical practices are on the rise.
The government has also intensified deportation efforts. Record numbers of deportations were carried out in 2025, with Indians forming a significant portion. The Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) is using artificial intelligence and additional officers to increase raids and enforcement actions.
What should be done?** Seirah advises temporary visa holders to closely monitor IRCC updates, apply for extensions as early as possible, and seek assistance from licensed immigration consultants. Those at risk of losing status should explore available PR pathways, such as the Provincial Nominee Program, or other suitable options.
This crisis poses a grave challenge for the Indian community and reflects the new reality of Canada's immigration system. If timely action is not taken, the number of undocumented immigrants could rise further in the coming years, placing heavy pressure on both society and the economy.
Friday World January 3, 2026
Sajjadali Nayani ✍
