-Friday World | 18th Feb. 2026
Strait of Hormuz
. Missiles were fired, parts of the strait were temporarily closed for "safety and maritime concerns," and global attention once again focused on this narrow chokepoint. Iran insists it was a routine military exercise named "Smart Control," but the precise timing transformed it into a clear display of strategic power. Was this mere coincidence, or did Tehran deliberately send a mixed signal of "talks plus strength"?
Hormuz: The World's Most Dangerous 'Oil Artery'
The Strait of Hormuz ranks among the planet's most critical maritime routes. Roughly 20-30% of global oil supply passes through here, transporting energy from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, and others to Asia, Europe, and the United States. Any disruption—even for a few hours—can send oil prices soaring. For major importers like India and China, this directly translates to higher fuel costs and economic pressure.
Iran fully grasps this strategic leverage. IRGC Navy Commander Rear Admiral Alireza Tangsiri has openly stated that, on orders from top leadership, the strait could be closed. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has repeatedly warned of Iran's capability to sink American warships. This approach embodies classic gunboat diplomacy—sitting at the negotiating table while flexing military muscle to apply pressure.
Missiles During Talks: Signal or Coincidence?
Iran describes the "Smart Control" drills—featuring missiles, drones, and vessels—as pre-scheduled. Yet the timing raises questions:
- Talks kicked off in Geneva.
- Simultaneously, IRGC fired missiles from coastal, inland, and island positions, hitting targets in the strait.
- Sections of the waterway were temporarily shut down citing security needs.
The intended message appears straightforward: "We are open to dialogue, but our military strength remains intact. If pressure mounts, global energy flows could be disrupted." This is textbook deterrence—reminding adversaries of the high cost of escalation to push them toward compromise.
The Core of the Nuclear Dispute: A Deep Trust Deficit
Iran's nuclear program has remained contentious since the 2015 JCPOA agreement. The Trump administration withdrew in 2018, prompting Iran to ramp up uranium enrichment. Current talks center on these key issues:
- Iran demands: Lift sanctions and allow its peaceful energy program to continue.
The US insists: Limit uranium enrichment and include discussions on ballistic missiles.
Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi noted that an understanding was reached on "guiding principles," opening a "new window of opportunity." However, core differences persist. Iran views its missiles as essential defense, while the US, Israel, and Gulf allies see them as threats.
Global and Regional Impacts
Oil Markets: Rising tensions could spike Brent crude prices, hitting importers like India and China hardest.
Regional Security: Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel grow more concerned. The US has bolstered its military presence in the area.
Risk of War? Not imminent, but failed talks combined with escalating military moves could spiral. Joint exercises with Russia and China further heighten the stakes.
Diplomacy or Power Play?
Iran's actions reflect a dual-track strategy—pursuing negotiations on one hand while demonstrating strength on the other. This underscores a Middle East reality: diplomacy rarely succeeds in isolation; it requires credible military backing. The key question now: Will this missile display strengthen the Geneva talks, or force the Trump administration into a tougher stance?
For global peace, hopes rest on the negotiating table in Geneva. If the flames of Hormuz spread unchecked, the fire won't be confined to the Gulf—it could engulf the entire world.
Sajjadali Nayani ✍
Friday World | 18th Feb. 2026
